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  2. MGEVOLVE - A discussion on the possibilities of an evolving computer virus.
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  4.  
  5. The companion file to this doument is MGEVOLVE.XLS. The model is not offered 
  6. as a well-developed one, it is simply a rough idea that I hope others will 
  7. work up.
  8.  
  9. The basis is the idea that a computer virus could be developed that would 
  10. evolve in some manner.
  11.  
  12. Sorry if your WP system can't cope with the rather wide margins below.
  13.  
  14. If you need this another format (.WKS, etc.) let me know).
  15.  
  16. The model is a simple Excel spreadsheet and the variables are pretty
  17. obvious:
  18.  
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  20. Rep-rate        3               Machines        500             
  21. (Number of copies the virus     (Number of machines the viruses are on)
  22.  makes of itself each 
  23.  replication time)
  24.  
  25. Msurvive        0.1             Reps/day/mc     10              
  26. (Survival rate of variants)     (Number of replication opportunities
  27.                                  per day per machine)
  28.  
  29. Mu-rate         0.5             Total reps/day  5000            
  30. (Mutation rate)
  31.  
  32.         "Note that ""Years"" is based on a 200 day working year."                                       
  33.                                                 
  34. Generation      Population      New variants    Total variants  Replications    Days            Years
  35. 1               500             0               1               500             0.10            0.00
  36. 2               1325            75              76              1825            0.37            0.00
  37. 3               3510            198             274             5335            1.07            0.01
  38. 4               9301            526             800             14636           2.93            0.01
  39. 5               24647           1395            2195            39283           7.86            0.04
  40. 6               65314           3697            5892            104597          20.92           0.10
  41. 7               173082          9797            15689           277679          55.54           0.28
  42. 8               458667          25962           41651           736346          147.27          0.74
  43. 9               1215467         68800           110451          1951813         390.36          1.95
  44. 10              3220987         182320          292771          5172800         1034.56         5.17
  45. 11              8535615         483148          775919          13708415        2741.68         13.71
  46. 12              22619379        1280342         2056261         36327794        7265.56         36.33
  47. 13              59941353        3392906         5449167         96269147        19253.83        96.27
  48. 14              158844584       8991202         14440369        255113731       51022.75        255.11
  49. 15              420938147       23826687        38267056        676051878       135210.38       676.05
  50. 16              1115486089      63140722        101407778       1791537967      358307.59       1791.54
  51.  
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  53. Any comments, problems, or questions:
  54.  
  55.           Mark Gibbs [75600,1002]
  56.           Gibbs & Co.
  57.           Tel.: (805) 647-2307
  58.           Fax.: (805) 647-2945
  59.  
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